Center for Global Development, 2002. 39 p.
Hamoudi, Amar
Birdsall, Nancy
Center for Global Development
Working Paper N°2
Education is among the most prominent of the great challenges of development. This paper outlines the likely effects of the AIDS pandemic in Africa on the continent's ability to produce education and use it effectively for growth and poverty reduction. Four channels are explored. First, a supply effect: The deaths of millions of adults, and among them hundreds of thousands of teachers, will bring an increase in Africa's already relatively high fiscal burden of teacher salaries or the need to reduce the educational requirements of teachers. Second, a demand effect: The foreshortening of time horizons will reduce the lifetime private returns to education, making investments of time and money in schooling appear less attractive. Third, a factor productivity effect: in many countries the loss of a large share of the skilled work force may reduce the social returns to skill among educated people who survive, reducing the contribution of education to overall growth. And finally, a complementarity effect: The loss of physical capital assets may reduce the ability of skilled workers to contribute to overall economic production, to the extent that physical and human capital are complementary inputs.
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