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The authors examine the performance of the primary school education system in Tanzania over the 1990s. Given the relatively robust correlation between educational attainment and productivity established in the literature in both agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, human capital accumulation through education forms a major component of development strategy. At the same time, AIDS poses clear threats to the goal of human capital accumulation through education. …
Using data from Demographic and Health Surveys for eleven countries in sub-Saharan Africa,the authorestimates the effect of local HIV prevalence on individual human capital investment. The authorfinds that the HIV/AIDS epidemic has reduced human capital investment: living in an area with higher HIV prevalence is associated with lower levels of completed schooling and slower progress through school. These results are consistent with a model of human capital investment in which parents and children respond to changes in the expected return to schooling driven by mortality risk.
